Syria Shoots Down Turkish Jet: A Crisis with Russia Ahead

When Syria shot down a Turkish military aircraft on Friday, it was yet another sign that the regional dimension of the uprising against the Assad regime is evolving from a struggle by proxy to open hostilities. The challenge for Washington is how best to respond to the crisis at a time when strong support for Turkey may endanger closer diplomatic cooperation with Russia.


Although details of the incident remain unclear, the heart of the matter is that a Turkish fighter briefly flew into Syrian airspace, was subsequently fired on, and crashed into the Mediterranean Sea. It was the latest in a string of incidents over the past few months between Syria and Turkey. As Turkish support for the opposition has increased, Assad's forces have committed a number of shootings across the Turkish frontier and actively backed the Kurdish PYD -- the Syrian branch of Ankara's old enemy, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).


Even before the jet was downed, Ankara had been asking Washington for greater support in dealing with the threats from Syria. The U.S. response has been to insist that Turkey ask for a consultation under Article 4 of the NATO charter, which concerns threats to a member state's "territorial integrity, political independence, or security." That fateful meeting will finally happen tomorrow as a result of Friday's incident.


Washington's dilemma is simple: over the past week, it has invested considerable time and effort talking with Russian representatives in Geneva, where officials are assessing the purpose and modalities of a "Contact Group" of countries to find a political solution to the Syria crisis. On one hand, if Washington does not back Turkey sufficiently, it will signal to Bashar al-Assad that downing NATO aircraft will not cost him militarily. On the other hand, if the United States expresses unqualified public support for Turkey, and if NATO announces or even hints that it is preparing various contingencies for Syria (a 180-degree shift from its latest summit in Chicago), then Russian support for the proposed Contact Group could be in jeopardy.


Of course, Turkey itself may have multiple interests at stake in the NATO consultation. Ankara likely views the meeting as a test of its relationship with Washington and key NATO partners as much as a call for allied support against Damascus. Ankara does not appear to be chomping at the bit for confrontation with Syria, but Turkish leaders would surely like to know whether the alliance is ready to back it should such conflict ensue. Based on today's comments by EU leaders, NATO support is qualified at best.


Solving this dilemma requires that Washington get its priorities straight. U.S. policy clearly states that the solution to the crisis is in line with that of the vast majority of Syrians -- Assad has to go. Although avoiding full-blown civil war should be a consideration in how Washington pursues his departure, it is not a goal in of itself. Forcing his ouster via diplomacy alone is a long shot at best, even with Moscow's help. To increase the chances of diplomatic success while preparing for the steady worsening of the conflict (a well-established trend since the uprising began), Washington should openly state its options for "Plan B" during the NATO meeting, and its willingness to exercise them.


By Andrew J. Tabler


Andrew J. Tabler is a senior fellow in The Washington Institute's Program on Arab Politics

U.S. has wrong idea of Syrian opposition

Fractured, splintered, disorganized. This is how U.S. officials and the international community have branded Syria's opposition, and many say that is why the West opposes military intervention.

At a conference on Syria recently, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said, "The opposition has work to do."

Activists and analysts say the U.S. administration is not giving an accurate picture of the opponents to Syrian dictator Bashar Assad.

"Of course you will not get 23 million Syrians in one organization — this is impossible," said Radwan Ziadeh, a spokesman for the Syrian National Council (SNC), a committee of Syrian exiles. "This hasn't been possible in other cases or countries (either)."

Sunday, the council met in Istanbul to pledge unity and elect a new leader to convince the world that it is a trustworthy alternative to Assad. Council officials selected Abdulbaset Sieda, a Kurdish activist, to head the opposition.

That they picked a member of a minority group rather than from the majority Sunni Muslim community shows the opposition is serious about being inclusive and avoiding civil war in a post-Assad Syria, they say.

"We are now in the process of repairing the relationship between the SNC and the forces working inside Syria so that we may reach common grounds between us," Sieda said.

Unlike Egypt and Tunisia, where revolutionaries were organizing for years, dissidents in Syria had little chance to unite because of repression from the regime.

Syria has numerous differences in ethnicity, religious beliefs and social strata.

The SNC must accommodate members of the Muslim Brotherhood, liberal activists, minorities and the Free Syrian Army. Similar divisions existed in Egypt's revolution last year, but there was no insistence then from the West that Egypt's opposition movement agree on a political platform.

Before the council selected a Kurdish leader, Syria's Kurdish dissidents accused it of dismissing their interests. Some minorities — Assyrians, Alawites, Maronite Christians, Greek Catholics — have largely not joined the opposition.

Assad is well aware of the mistrust among Syria's enclaves and takes advantage of it, some analysts say.

"I think the regime has played the sectarian card brutally well," said David Lesch, a professor of Middle Eastern history at Trinity University in San Antonio. "Alawites and the Christians for the most part, even if many may not be enamored with the regime or with Assad, they see him and the regime as the least worst alternative."

Members of the Free Syrian Army, a coalition of anti-regime militias, have kept a distance from the council. Wassim Sabbagh, a refugee who left his job in New York to join the resistance, runs arms and equipment to the rebel fighters.

"We don't trust the SNC," he says. "They are fake."

The emergence of the National Coordination Committee for Democratic Change as an alternative has further complicated matters. The committee supports reforming the regime and does not demand the toppling of Assad as does the SNC.

"We call them the opposition made by the regime," Ziadeh said. "It is not important for us to have dialogue with them. That will desecrate our credibility among the Syrians."

Other council members disagree. "I know some of them personally," said Mulham al Jundi of the Syrian National Council. "Some of them are (the) real Syrian opposition, and they are asking for freedom."

There is some common ground among the opposition. Leaders say all groups share the goals of democratic progress, equal rights and — more immediately — a safe zone and no-fly zone within Syria to stop Assad's military from killing civilians.

And the entire movement seems to agree on one thing: the international community's lack of assistance, especially that of President Obama.

"It's obvious to everyone that no one wants to help the Syrian people," said Noureddin al-Abdo, an activist in Idlib. "Obama could make Assad leave with a move of his finger. But we now know that the whole world doesn't want Assad to leave."

Hozan Ibrahim, a member of the council, says Western powers continue to denigrate the opposition to justify their own reluctance to intervene.

"We don't have U.S. leadership pushing in any meaningful way" for a resolution, says Kadir Ustun, research director for the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a Washington think-tank focused on Turkish-American relations.

Ustun says it is not Syria but the Western nations that must unify behind a common objective to avoid "endless violence" in a post-Assad Syria.

"If we don't agree on an end goal, we don't know what comes next," Ustun says. "We'd have armed groups roaming the country."

Syria Hits A Turkish F-4. There Will Be Consequences

NATO will hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday to discuss the downing of a Turkish jet by Syrian forces, a spokeswoman for the Atlantic Alliance said.

"Turkey has requested consultations under Article 4" of NATO's founding treaty, under which member countries can request a meeting if their security is threatened, NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu said, adding that the meeting would take place on Tuesday.


Turkey called for the meeting today after accusing Syria of shooting down one of its warplanes in international airspace.


Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said on national television an investigation by Ankara into the incident concluded that its plane was "shot down in international airspace, 13 nautical miles from Syria".


Davutoglu said the plane was shot down shortly after it "momentarily violated Syrian airspace" but added that the unarmed plane, on a mission to test Turkey's radar defences, had posed no threat to Syria at any time.


Lungescu said, "Under Article 4, any ally can request consultations whenever, in the opinion of any of them, their territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened. The North Atlantic Council will meet on Tuesday at Turkey's request. We expect Turkey to make a presentation on the recent incident."


Iran urged Ankara and Damascus to show "restraint" over Syria's shooting down of a Turkish fighter jet, Iranian state media reported today.


Tehran "asks both sides to show calm and restraint and hopes that with tact and tolerance and dialogue, this issue will be evaluated and through a peaceful resolution, tranquility and stability will be preserved in the region," Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi was quoted as saying.


Iran is the staunchest ally of Syria, which is embroiled in a 15-month conflict UN officials fear has become a civil war.


Turkey, a NATO member, sits on the other side as a critic of Syrian President Bashar al Assad's crackdown on the unrest.


A Syrian anti-aircraft battery near the Turkish border on Friday shot down a Turkish Phantom warplane that Damascus said violated its airspace by flying in low and fast from the Mediterranean.


"According to our conclusions, our plane was shot down in international airspace," Turkey's foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu said. "The plane did not show any sign of hostility toward Syria and was shot down about 15 minutes after having momentarily violated Syrian airspace."


The minister said that there was no warning from Syria before it shot down the plane, which did not have arms and was flying on a training mission and undertaking a radar system test.


"The Syrians knew full well that it was a Turkish military plane and the nature of its mission," he said.


Syria has said it took out the F-4 phantom jet on Friday after it violated its airspace, and on Saturday (local time) Turkey acknowledged that the plane may have done so in comments seen as a bid to cool tensions between the former allies.


In a statement issued after Syria confirmed it downed the plane, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey would take all necessary steps once it established the facts.


NATO member Turkey has become a major critic of Syrian President Bashar al Assad over his brutal crackdown on opposition protests and rebel groups.


Turkey has taken in more than 30,000 civilians who fled the violence in Syria, housing them in camps near the border, according to foreign ministry figures.
Earlier this month, it hosted a key meeting of Syrian opposition activists.


Syria and Turkey said their navies were coordinating a search for the Phantom's two pilots.