Security Assesment for 2013

Inputs for Global Security Headlines in 2013

Syria

NATO Patriots and their crew troops will be deployed in Turkey by 2013. Their existence may encourage militia to fight more fiercely, causing to demonstrate transgression on human-rights issues. After twenty months of internal war, the Assad regime is in a difficult military situation. It suffered significant losses in terms of territory, positions, troops, equipment and even some combat aircrafts. The fighting capacity of its forces appears to be diminishing, and its standard tactic of bombing and shelling opposition areas is becoming less effective and more costly due to strong resistance and organized counterattacks.

As a result of Patriots’ deployment, pressure will undoubtedly rise within the regime to take different and more effective actions. If the situation worsens by 2013, Assad is feared to try using Chemical munitions on some specific regions of resistance positions, possibly with artillery attacks or aerial delivery. To deny international protests and pressure, he may choose to use some depleted form of chemical munitions to prevent mass killings as Saddam Regime did in Halabja in 1988.

Obama administration recently warned Syria with a “use of force resolution” to prevent Assad government from using chemical or biological weapons on its own people.

It’s also possible to predict that, Assad’s weakening may promote extremists and Al Qaida-Iraq may extend its reach in Syria. A series of recent bombings and executions of captured regime soldiers in Syria signaled the earmarks of Al Qaida tactics which heightens the fears that radicalism finds ground in Syrian resistance.

Above mentioned threats’ surfacing, may put U.S in a more active involvement in the Syrian arena, possibly providing some significant military support to Turkey against Syria, also putting more weight on Iraq to prevent disputes between Baghdad and Kurdish region and asking them to cooperate against Al Qaeda activities in the region.

 

Iran

Iran’s presidential election is scheduled to be held on 14 June 2013 to elect the seventh President, successor of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Among potential candidates according to Iranian media news, the most possible figures for nomination are; Mostafa Mohammed Najjar (Minister of Interior since 2009), Ali Larjani (Majlis Speaker since 2008), Mohammad Reza Aref (First Vice President between 2001-2005), Ali Akbar Velayati (Minister of Foreign Affairs between 1981-1997), Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (Mayor of Tehran since 2005), Mohammad Reza Rahimi (Vice President since 2009), Ali Akbar Salehi, (Minister of Foreign Affairs since 2010), Saeed Jalili (Chief negotiator of Iran’s Nuclear Program) and Esfendiar Rahim Mashaei (Chief of Staff for President since 2005).

Speculation is high about who will be Ahmadinejad's successor. Three individuals immediately emerge as having an improvement in their profile and political standing. Tehran's mayor, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is one name often mentioned. Another is Saeed Jalili, the chief nuclear negotiator and a close ally of Khamenei. Many also tip Ali Larijani, the parliamentary speaker. Whoever among these candidates is elected, it’s clear that Iran’s nuclear program along with its direct involvement in Syria, Lebanon and Gazza will gain momentum by 2013. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pledged that no amount of international pressure would force Iran to give up its dedicated nuclear program and declared that the United States and the West were not in a position to act militarily against his country.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report dated November 16 clearly puts forward that Iran’s work on the deep underground nuclear site “Fordo”, near the holy city of Qom is almost complete. The site claimed to have full nuclear capacity with 2,784 centrifuges, an increase of 644 since the previous IAEA report in August 2012.

In addition to its nuclear activities, Iran has also been working to develop its ballistic missile program. According to the U.S. Institute of Peace, Iran has the largest and most diverse ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, currently possessing the capability to strike anywhere in the region, including Israel.

Iran is also working to develop its “Sajjil Missile Project”, with solid fuel and capable of being fired within minutes. According to experts, the Sajjil missile class is the most likely missile to be designed to function with a nuclear weapon and this project is expected to get ready for production and test phase by mid-2013.

 

Meanwhile, a powerful European and American oil embargo has forced Iranian oil output to its lowest monthly levels in decades, significantly curtailing exports as well, according to information stated by the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration. As a result of the pressure, there are signs that Iran might be willing to return to negotiations. Despite the strong opposition of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for dialogue, some Iranian political intellectuals -in exile- are optimistic that the current impasse will be broken; saying sometime in 2013 U.S and West could pressure Iran into brokering a deal on American terms.

 

Israel

In the short term an Israeli military intervention to Iran “without U.S assistance” seems unlikely for at least two main reasons. First of all, early parliamentary elections will be held in Israel on 22 January 2013 to elect the 19th Knesset among five prominent political parties of Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu), Labor (Shelly Yachimovich), Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman), Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid), and Kadima (Shaul Mofaz). Even though Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud is at odds with U.S, signaling to perform an independent military action against Iran if necessary; a new cabinet may choose to apply a less pragmatic and more collaborative approach to deal with Iranian threats.

Second; Israel might want to monitor Iran’s proxy activities in Syria along with other Hamas and Islamic Jihad positions in Gazza and East African Coast to adjust its military readiness according to the developments within the region. Any Israeli operation targeting Iran’s nuclear production facilities or missile bases will cause heavy Iranian retaliation, and Iranian counter attacks might come from different hostile regions like Sudan, Yemen, Oman or Lebanon, of which Israel might need to dig for more “time concerning precise intelligence” and develop concrete preparations before attacking Iran.

Military and policy analysts assess that Israel's operation “Pillar of Cloud” [Amud Anan] to Gaza could be signaling for an Israeli strike on Iran. Prior to this operation a military base in Yarmouk Sudan -which is about 1100 miles away from Israel air space- had been bombed and Sudanese authorities accused Israel. The Yarmouk was believed to be a base camp to receive arms shipments from Iran and Libya that were smuggled continentally to Hamas and the Iranian terror proxy in Gaza, Islamic Jihad.

The impact of this attack on Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza were the cutting of a planned shipment of additional arms, primarily the Iranian-made Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 artillery rockets, the exact rockets that Hamas has recently launched at the vicinities of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. With the Yarmouk facility and most of the Fajr missiles eliminated, the capability of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad to fire beyond southern Israel is severely limited. Should Israel succeed eliminating Iranian proxies and their attempts targeting Israeli cities with continuous low profile military attempts, Iran will be more reluctant to accept negotiation options, including a cohesive deal to allow monitoring its nuclear development program.

 

North Korea

North Korea’s nuclear program and uranium enrichment efforts continue regardless of whether or not they are condemned by Washington or criticized by Western states along with Russia and China. According to some intelligence reports; North Korea’s uranium enrichment efforts reach a sizable degree of uncertainty to tracking North Korea’s fissile material stocks because there is no credible means of monitoring North Korean production of materials for the fact that North Korea is using centrifuge technology at a secret site, having strong counter-measures to prevent any leak of information for the purpose of uranium enrichment and is able to keep its nuclear agenda secret.

It’s known that Iran has close ties with North Korea and both states signed an agreement for “science and technology cooperation” since January 2012. U.S intelligence sources mentioned that Iran has acquired ballistic missile parts from North Korea in 2010. According to these sources; Iran has stationed defense staff in North Korea since late October apparently to strengthen cooperation in missile and nuclear development.

Despite the ban by UN resolutions imposed in 2006 and 2009, forbidding Pyongyang to carry out any missile or nuclear related tests; North Korea announced its plan to launch a long-range rocket claimed to be carrying a satellite, sometime between December 10 and December 22. A similar launch was planned but then postponed due to a technical problem on April 2012. 

This launch is claimed to be scheduled to take place on or around the first anniversary of the death of their Supreme Leader Kim il-Sung, a meaningful date which coincides with Japan’s parliamentary and South Korea’s presidential elections scheduled on December 2012. Following both elections, Japan and South Korea are expected to discuss their policies to deal with the threats posed by North Korea and Kim Jong-il leadership. Such a launch will not only serve as a show of force to North Korea’s adversaries at the Korean Peninsula, but also is capable of triggering wider U.S, U.N and maybe NATO involvement to some extent, which may give Russia and China extra political/military burden to deal with, probably causing a sudden change of naval balance on Pacific and Sea of Japan.

It is believed that North Korea’s rocket program is aimed to develop a ballistic missile, capable of delivering a nuclear warhead; which bothers not only US, Japan, South Korea, but also Russia and China as well. That’s why Russia and China urged North Korea not to go forward with a plan for its second rocket launch, with Moscow saying any such move would violate restrictions imposed by the U.N. Security Council.

Kim Jong-il, unlike his father Kim il-Sung, is believed to be more cautious and sure-footed on bilateral policy issues and expected to heed Russian and Chinese calls. If he denies doing so, the fragile stability of the Asia-Pacific Region will be at stake.

Georgia

Described as the “Back Door” to Caucasian and Black Sea Region, Georgia emerged from the breakup of the Soviet Union, torn apart by its own separatist conflicts and afflicted with corruption and poverty. In recent years it has transformed into one of the more democratic countries in the region, owing largely to reforms by the government of Mikhail Saakashvili, who defeated the ex-president Eduard Shevardnadze in a peaceful coup of Rose Revolution and has been holding presidential office since 2004.

During his eight years in the office, Saakashvili had guided his country toward wider integration with the West, seeking membership in NATO and the European Union -which has been a motto for Georgia over two decades-, and sending Georgian troops (in symbolic proportions) to fight alongside American forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, moves that have damaged relations with Russia. He also put a high priority on reuniting three regions that refused to recognize federal rule: Ajaria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. He found quick success in Ajaria, a Black Sea region on the border with Turkey. He had hoped to win South Ossetia back before tackling Abkhazia, but his overtures in 2005 came to a halt with Russian military involvement and a small scale Russian incursion in 2008 decreased his popularity.

In October 2012’s parliamentary election, Saakashvili’s ruling United National Movement Party was defeated by Georgian Dream, a coalition of opposition groups backed by the billionaire entrepreneur and a TV channel owner, Bidzina Ivanishvili who claimed to have close ties with Russian political elites. Saakashvili’s term will end on October 2013 and during his last year as President his disputes with newly elected premier Ivanishvili may alter Georgia’s western policy for Russian benefits.

Dismissing the claims that he intends to lead Tbilisi back into the Russian fold, Ivanishvili, who made his fortune in Russia, has promised to repair ties with Moscow that were ruptured after the two neighbors fought a brief war in 2008. He also has taken steps to reassure Washington that he’s willing to increase Georgia’s relations with U.S and planning to increase Georgia’s contribution to U.S efforts for combatting terrorism and peace keeping operations in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as other regions where ever Tbilisi assistance shall be needed.

Moscow warned Georgia’s new ruling power that Russia has no intention to hold any negotiations on the law on "occupied territories" (Russia is not using the "occupied territories", but the "Republic of Abkhazia" and "Republic of Ossetia" notions), which Georgia adopted following the 2008 South Ossetia war.

Regarding the recent changes to the Constitution, Georgia will become a parliamentary republic in 2013, and many executive powers will be transferred to the prime minister. The new parliament will be relocated from the capital of Tbilisi to the country's second largest city of Kutaisi which is on the border with the disputed territories Abkhazia and Ossetia, in early 2013. A new government will also be formed following the scheduled 2013 presidential election as envisaged by the 2010 constitutional amendments. Following these changes in political structure, and selecting a president who has closer ties with Russia, Georgia may lose its “appetite” for NATO vision, may get more affiliated to Russian interests in the region.

 

By Coskun UNAL

This Article is published on Conservative Decision's December 2012 edition.