An Assesment on Russia-Turkey Crisis

Downing of the Russian SUKHOI 24 Shouldn’t Wreck the Campaign Against ISIS

Turkey’s strike on a Russian warplane on November 24^th may have been avoidable, but it was hardly an accident. Turkey claims that in the five minutes before downing, two SUKHOI Jets flew briefly across a finger of territory that pokes into Syria, it issued ten warnings. And despite Russia’s denials and a suggestion that its plane has been hit inside Syrian airspace, the run of the evidence is in Turkey’s favour. Russia was provocative, Turkey was hot-headed. But the real task here should be to ensure that the winner is not ISIS.

That’s now a danger because the loss of airplane threatens to poison relations between two countries intimately involved in the Syrian civil war, on opposite sides. Russia backs Assad regime, Turkey backs some Sunni groups. Putin, calling Turkey’s actions ‘stabbing in the back’, vows for serious counter-measures and consequences. Even now, Russia is bombing Syrian Turkmen tribes who have an affinity with Turks and also trying to extend its relations with Syrian Kurdish groups, who are currently working with US Special Forces on the ground.

A grave responsibility falls on the shoulders of the French President Hollande, who has been shuttling from capital to capital to galvanize efforts against ISIS. As of December 2015, Britain, France, Spain and Germany have come to a consensus to support US air operations and started tasking their Air Forces on to ISIS targets.

Russia on the other hand, extended its dialogues with Iran and its proxies to create a Moscow Dominated anti-ISIS blog. It has also positioned some (allegedly 4 to 6) S-400 batteries to strengthen the naval and ground deployments around Damascus and Latakia. On the ground of the current conflict, Russian campaign is not going to well. As well as a jet, it lost a helicopter which was sent to rescue the downed pilots. After years of fighting, the official Syrian Army is in poor condition. With Russia’s logistics and air support, it is now holding steady but has failed to retake back much territory. Due to the Western pressure and the bloodshed caused by its government, Mr. Assad is a liability for Putin. With him in power, reaching out to a permanent peace is almost impossible.

We also have to acknowledge the facts that Russia has its own reasons to stay in the game. Russian civilians have been killed in the bombing of an airliner over Egypt, some radical Chechen groups inside ISIS are of Russian origins who had been attacking Russian security forces for decades, and also Russia is under the scrutiny of Islamic home-grown jihadists inside its borders.

A Russia-Europe and US alliance against ISIS seems vital, yet this may be beyond Mr. Hollande’s reach at the moment. But he, as well as the leaders of influential states might yet shift their priorities, at least to get Moscow and Ankara thinking about a settlement. Yet, both Mr. Putin and Mr. Erdogan are known for letting national pride drive their decisions, backing down or changing attitudes for both are quite unlikely.