April 27, 2012

A Snap-Shot of Turkey-Saudi Arabia Relations; Complex Interdependence Theory

Theory


"Complex Interdependence" theory suggests a refinement and synthesis of traditionalist (realist) and modernist(idealist) theories of international relations' with an argument that neither of these two theories present a full picture of global political environment.

In the enlightenment of this description, we can observe Turkey-Saudi Arabia relations have been characterized by an increasing tone of rapprochement, covert and overt  cooperation and solidarity beginning in the 1970s, relying on some commonly shared historical/cultural values, in addition to the awareness of shared economic and diplomatic interests related to the Arab-Israeli War of 1973 and US embargo to Turkey for Cyprus war of 1974. A common theme in these areas is the Islamic identity of Turkey and Saudi Arabia.


Tying Policy-Knot With Oil


The Oil Producing countries of the Middle East have had a great impact on regional and global politics, especially as a result of their ability, to secure greater control over their domestic oil industries and unite in some international organizations to regulate the Oil Market.

The period between discovery of oil fields in the Middle East and the nationalization of the oil industry can be classified as the first oil regime during which more than %50 of extraction, refinery, transportation and marketing of oil was controlled by major States and companies. The oil producing states were substantially dependent on these western states and companies that, Israel's establishment (1948) and Ashkenaz Jews' immigration to the new Israel state (1955)- a territory in the heartland of oil- without a major veto from oil producing countries, places on the same period.

After 1940, growing oil consumption and the (predicted) decline of US oil production capacity led to the revision of concession agreements according to which owning states would participate in oil industry with a 50% share of the total profits. Before this amendment more than 85% of the oil industry was under the control of Western States (primarily British, Dutch, French). However, though the oil producing countries secured greater revenues from oil production after 1950s, oil itself was still not an effective source of diplomatic influence on behalf of the East.

The emergence of the second oil regime was closely associated with the prime of OPEC(Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) and OAPEC(Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries) in the 1970s, uniting the producing countries for the control of the oil industry, at a time of increasing global oil consumption and depletion of major oil fields in the West. The producing countries were highly motivated to nationalize the industry and use it as a foreign policy tool. This motivation was blessed and supported with non-producing Arab countries, which provided an upper-hand to the major oil rich countries of Arabian Peninsula. Gradually; through multilateral negotiations and sometimes unilateral actions by the producing countries, these states took control of more than 80% of the oil industry. The outbreak of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War and the support of major Western Powers for Israel, provided an opportunity to use that leverage.  

During this second oil regime, 1973 War triggered an oil embargo that severely hit all oil-importing states, including Turkey. Turkey was one of those vulnerable states, an industrializing country with an "acute" dependence on imported oil. As a consequence, Turkey was compelled to re-orient its relations with Saudi Arabia and other OAPEC members, which have been downplayed for a long time, due to Turkey's secular structure. This re-orientation was reflected in Turkey's membership in the -Saudi Supported- Organization of Islamic Cooperation. Downgrading its relations with Israel, Turkey gave legal permission to World Muslim League (WML) and similar Islamic organizations along with banking and financing tools of Saudi Arabia.




Saudi Arabia's Influence on Islamic Turkey


King Faisal (ruled 1964-1975) dreamed of recovering Jerusalem and praying in Al-Aqsa Mosque before his death, and called for Arab and Muslim states to unite against Israel and communism, describing both entities as heretic products of Western imperialism and/or Atheism. On this perspective, Saudi Arabia's diplomatic relations with Turkey were aimed at promoting Turkish support of the Arab struggle, as well as uniting Muslim countries around common religious goals. 

The energy crisis and its continued impact after the 1979 Revolution in Iran, affected Turkey much more severely than any other western country. The rise of the oil price in international markets, brought the oil-dependent Turkish domestic industry, to a grinding halt and paralyzed the transportation system, hospitals, institutions. Turkey was in need of a stable supply of oil and needed to increase its export revenues. Thus, Turkey's foreign policy agenda in the 1970s and its need for credits to mitigate the domestic economy, helped to channel relations with the Kingdom in specific directions.

A simple chronology of a decade (between 1974 of Cyprus War Aftermath to 1984 of Turgut Ozal Era) might help to observe the Saudi Arabia influence in Turkey.
  • Turkey entered Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) (1969 and 1974)
  • Saudi Arabia granted 5,000,000 USD through Faisal Foundation (1973)
  • Saudi Arabia Petroleum Company supported Iraq-Turkey pipe line construction and enabled 6000 barrels for Turkey's emergency needs. (1975)
  • Promoting Islamic Education,Kingdom granted 7,000,000 USD for Rabita Foundation of Turkey (1982)
  • Faisal-Finance entered Turkish Money Market (1982)
  • Al Baraka-Turk emerged in Turkish Banking System (1984)
  • Turkey entered World Muslim League (WML) (1981-1985)
The World Muslim League (WML) was established in 1965 by King Faisal to serve as an international Islamic cooperation, missionary and charity foundation. It put particular emphasis on supporting knowledge and practice of Islamic principles for all Muslims around the world. Their activities generally included donations and funding for activities, conferences, youth-camps, publications and construction of mosques, Islamic centers.

Turkey's relations with Arab states had previously been shaped by the dynamics of Cold-War, which required Turkey join Western Bloc due to its security concerns. This was reflected in its relations with Arab neighbours of pro-Soviet regimes.  

As Turkey's policies shifted towards increased relations with Saudi Arabia, so too did its
foreign policy priorities. Turkish foreign policy cardinals of Ozal Era can be summarized as in the following steps;
  • Provide diplomatic support to the Arabs,
  • Prevent relations with the West from deteriorating,
  • Keep relations with Israel at a minimum,
  • Support the Palestinian Case but keep a distance to avoid upsetting America,
  • Improve relations with Arab countries in a multi dimensional way, especially in commercial areas.


 Euler diagram showing the relationships between various multinational organisations within the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation



For similar economic and politic considerations, Turkey recognized the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) as the sole representative of Palestine and established diplomatic relations with it, by permitting PLO open offices in Ankara in 1976.

Turkey agreed to support anti-Israeli decisions made by OIC by downsizing but not ending the relations with Israel. In return; Turkey was allowed to invite a representative from Turkish Cypriot community to all OIC meetings and the Conference recognized the existance of two equal communities on the Island.


Conclusion


Turkish-Saudi Arabia relations have shown a trend towards  greater cooperation and proximity with Ozal Government and this cooperation is accelerated during the period of Justice and Development Party (AKP). Influential in this process is thought to be increasing Saudi foreign policy of mitigating its dependency on the US and the West, and its concerns about intense US involvement in the Middle East triggered by the Iraq War and Arab Spring movements.

Both countries have united in actions to combat Al-Qaida. In February 2005 two countries signed a security cooperation agreement. Again in early 2005 a Turkish national, Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu became President of OIC, which can be interpreted as a deeper and more active Turkish involvement with the goals of the organization.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia have signed more than 10 agreements, conventions, protocols in various political, military, economic, social areas, almost as much as the number of agreements signed between two countries until 2002.
In 2006, they agreed to establish a "Medical City" in Istanbul, to be built by Saudi-German Hospital Company with an investment value of 13 Billion USD. Again in 2006 and 2007, Saudi King visited Istanbul and Turkey, promising the solidarity of two countries with new incoming projects. These high level visits have been reciprocated with the visits of Erdogan and Davutoglu between 2007-2011.

The emergence of  this particular kind of relationship between two countries is explained with the aid theory of Complex Interdependence, which advocates that international relations is not limited to security matters only. Rather, economic, diplomatic and social issues can be primary goals of bilateral and multidimensional relations, with the participation of state and non-state actors.




Georgetown University Acceptance Study-(Examplary Study on Complex Interdependence Theory)-By Coskun Unal, March 2012.

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