The Syrian Crisis and a Possible New Cold War Era
The Syrian crisis is no longer a purely Syrian affair. It's wider dimension was highlighted on Feb. 4, 2012 when Russia and China casted their veto at UN, thereby aborting a Western-backed resolution which had called Bashar Al-Assad to step down. At a stroke, the debate was no longer simply about Syria's internal power struggle. With their vetoes, Moscow and Beijing were highlighted the fact that they, too, had interests in Middle East which they were determined to protect. After the Iraq War and ongoing uncertainties over Tunisia, Libya, Egypt following the Arab Spring, maybe this veto meant a lot for West, reminding them that the region was no longer an exclusive Western preserve under U.S and its allies.
Russia has decades-old interests in the Middle East, in Syria in particular. As a major customer of Iranian oil, China who has been playing the game along with Russia, does not approve of Western sanctions against Tehran. Nor does it take kindly to U.S attempts to contain its influence in the Asia Pacific region.
The Syrian crisis has in fact been a two-stage affair from the very beginning, internal as well as international. On the internal level, the uprising has aimed to topple the regime on the model of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen. In this struggle, both sides, -government and opposition- have made serious mistakes.
The government's mistake was to use live-fire against street protesters, who were -at the beginning- demonstrating peacefully. The crisis could perhaps have been defused with the implementation of immediate results and a simple solution effort by the government would have been regarded as a fair step, not a weakness, by the people of Syria. Instead, mounting casualties have created enormous bitterness and hatred among the population reducing the chance of a future negotiation.
The opposition's mistake has been to resort to arms, to become militarized in form of Free Syrian Army (FSA)-a motley force of defectors from Syrian army as well as free lance warriors and hard-line Islamist fighters-. The opposition leadership in exile is composed of a number of disparate groups known as Syrian National Council (SNC). Inside the SNC, reports and intelligence claims that the Muslim Brotherhood -[Founded in Egypt in 1928 as a nationalist political party by an Islamic Scholar and schoolteacher Hassan Al Banna, by the end of WW2 the MB had an estimated two million members. Its ideas had gained it supporters throughout the Arab world and influenced other Islamist groups with its "model of political activism combined with Islamic charity work". Its most famous slogan, used worldwide, is "Islam is the solution." ]- is the best organized and funded element of the opposition. Outlawed since its terrorist campaign in 1977-1982 to overthrow Hafez Al-Assad,-an attempt crushed in blood at Hama- its driven by revenge.
No regime, whatever its political view and coloring, can/should tolerate an armed uprising, without responding with force. Indeed, the rise of an armed opposition has provided the Syrian regime a justification it needed to seek to crush it with ever bloodier repression. But the casualties over the last 11 months have been heavy, estimated at some point 5000-6000 civilians. As in all wars, the manipulation of information has been much in evidence but reports and media observations points out a fact that, Assad supporters [Alawites, Gypsies and Keldani Christians] along with Syrian Army are ready to act in to a Civil-War, against FSA and Sunni majority of Syria.
As for international stage; Russia and China, with some support from other emerging powers such as India and Brazil (besides a Venezuela in shadows), are challenging America's supremacy efforts in the Middle East. Washington's outrage at the challenge was evident when US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton angrily dismissed the Russian & Chinese veto as a "travesty". Escalating the crisis, she called for an international coalition to support the Syrian opposition against what she described as the "brutal regime" in Damascus. She encouraged the creation of a "Friends of Syria" group, with the apparent aim of channelling funds and weapons to Assad's enemies.
45 year-long Cold War has officially ended in 1991, and after 21 years it's not beyond logic to observe a new partitioning in another two maybe three axis. Europe and Israel tend to form a block under U.S umbrella, while Russia & China put every effort to contain U.S in major hinterlands. Middle East has not pick its side clear yet, hence the out-come of Arab Spring and after-math of regime changes may point-out an Islamic domination. Islam, a natural opposition to Israel, might well be tie-knotter to U.S oriented block and this is why U.S should want to be patient about Syria.
Turkey; a country ruled by an Islamic government of Justice and Development Party (AKP)-which came to power with majority votes 11 years ago- seems to be critical for both U.S and Russia. Loosening its ties with Israel,Turkey's stance alongside U.S and Europe might have a positive effect for other Muslim countries' adopting Western point of view and expectations for the region. Considering Russia's support to Syria and Iran in the region, Turkey's neutrality -for the sake of its stability- may damage its "stable-strong-democrat Muslim" image.
By Coskun Unal [April 28, 2012]
The Syrian crisis is no longer a purely Syrian affair. It's wider dimension was highlighted on Feb. 4, 2012 when Russia and China casted their veto at UN, thereby aborting a Western-backed resolution which had called Bashar Al-Assad to step down. At a stroke, the debate was no longer simply about Syria's internal power struggle. With their vetoes, Moscow and Beijing were highlighted the fact that they, too, had interests in Middle East which they were determined to protect. After the Iraq War and ongoing uncertainties over Tunisia, Libya, Egypt following the Arab Spring, maybe this veto meant a lot for West, reminding them that the region was no longer an exclusive Western preserve under U.S and its allies.
Russia has decades-old interests in the Middle East, in Syria in particular. As a major customer of Iranian oil, China who has been playing the game along with Russia, does not approve of Western sanctions against Tehran. Nor does it take kindly to U.S attempts to contain its influence in the Asia Pacific region.
The Syrian crisis has in fact been a two-stage affair from the very beginning, internal as well as international. On the internal level, the uprising has aimed to topple the regime on the model of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen. In this struggle, both sides, -government and opposition- have made serious mistakes.
The government's mistake was to use live-fire against street protesters, who were -at the beginning- demonstrating peacefully. The crisis could perhaps have been defused with the implementation of immediate results and a simple solution effort by the government would have been regarded as a fair step, not a weakness, by the people of Syria. Instead, mounting casualties have created enormous bitterness and hatred among the population reducing the chance of a future negotiation.
The opposition's mistake has been to resort to arms, to become militarized in form of Free Syrian Army (FSA)-a motley force of defectors from Syrian army as well as free lance warriors and hard-line Islamist fighters-. The opposition leadership in exile is composed of a number of disparate groups known as Syrian National Council (SNC). Inside the SNC, reports and intelligence claims that the Muslim Brotherhood -[Founded in Egypt in 1928 as a nationalist political party by an Islamic Scholar and schoolteacher Hassan Al Banna, by the end of WW2 the MB had an estimated two million members. Its ideas had gained it supporters throughout the Arab world and influenced other Islamist groups with its "model of political activism combined with Islamic charity work". Its most famous slogan, used worldwide, is "Islam is the solution." ]- is the best organized and funded element of the opposition. Outlawed since its terrorist campaign in 1977-1982 to overthrow Hafez Al-Assad,-an attempt crushed in blood at Hama- its driven by revenge.
No regime, whatever its political view and coloring, can/should tolerate an armed uprising, without responding with force. Indeed, the rise of an armed opposition has provided the Syrian regime a justification it needed to seek to crush it with ever bloodier repression. But the casualties over the last 11 months have been heavy, estimated at some point 5000-6000 civilians. As in all wars, the manipulation of information has been much in evidence but reports and media observations points out a fact that, Assad supporters [Alawites, Gypsies and Keldani Christians] along with Syrian Army are ready to act in to a Civil-War, against FSA and Sunni majority of Syria.
A Syrian Supporter of President Assad, wearing Sunni prayer beads, Shia Imam Ali Sword and Christian Rosary around his neck, at a rally in front of a Greek Orthodox church in Damascus, on January 09 2012.
As for international stage; Russia and China, with some support from other emerging powers such as India and Brazil (besides a Venezuela in shadows), are challenging America's supremacy efforts in the Middle East. Washington's outrage at the challenge was evident when US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton angrily dismissed the Russian & Chinese veto as a "travesty". Escalating the crisis, she called for an international coalition to support the Syrian opposition against what she described as the "brutal regime" in Damascus. She encouraged the creation of a "Friends of Syria" group, with the apparent aim of channelling funds and weapons to Assad's enemies.
45 year-long Cold War has officially ended in 1991, and after 21 years it's not beyond logic to observe a new partitioning in another two maybe three axis. Europe and Israel tend to form a block under U.S umbrella, while Russia & China put every effort to contain U.S in major hinterlands. Middle East has not pick its side clear yet, hence the out-come of Arab Spring and after-math of regime changes may point-out an Islamic domination. Islam, a natural opposition to Israel, might well be tie-knotter to U.S oriented block and this is why U.S should want to be patient about Syria.
Turkey; a country ruled by an Islamic government of Justice and Development Party (AKP)-which came to power with majority votes 11 years ago- seems to be critical for both U.S and Russia. Loosening its ties with Israel,Turkey's stance alongside U.S and Europe might have a positive effect for other Muslim countries' adopting Western point of view and expectations for the region. Considering Russia's support to Syria and Iran in the region, Turkey's neutrality -for the sake of its stability- may damage its "stable-strong-democrat Muslim" image.
By Coskun Unal [April 28, 2012]
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